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Anticipating uncertainty is more important than managing risks


New York, 17.04.2007

The Black Swan theory describes extreme events which emerge from beyond the perception of society to take huge effects on humanity. According to Taleb they occur with greater frequency than society wants to admit;since human kind will adopt an altered rationality that illustrates the causes of the event as pure logic – thereby making them less improbable in retrospective. A Black Swan event does not necessary signify a negative outcome, only one that was less expected by society and hence a surprise to the majority. Why is it then that businesses are tracking risk scenarios that are probable and calculable but not the ones that are improbable and live changing?

We have to expect the unexpected.

Further Reading: Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House.

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