News from predicat.net

[30.06.2010] Predicat launches the prediction market on e-mobility

Thu, 1 Jan 1970 1:00:00 GMT

Predicat launches on request of car manufacturers and utility providers the prediction market of summer 2010 on the subject of E-mobility. Experts of the industry, developers of new technologies and interested parties in the subject give Electric mobility their voice.

We all want consensus on the cars of the future, the electric supply concepts and the financing methods that can be expected in the years to come. The scientifically proven accuracy of prediction marktet allows participants to grasp the future of electic mobility in exact numbers and to establish their business cases and plannung on a secure plattform for investments.

The market launch is on August 2nd. You can submit your individual question and registration requests to e-mobility@predicat.net. The registed participants will receive an email in time to complete the registration process. Follow the link 'E-mobility flyer' for further information.

The predicat and e-mobility team wish you fun and success for your predictions.

[12.04.2010] Predicat.Net schedules Discovery Workshops for New Clients

Thu, 1 Jan 1970 1:00:00 GMT

The usage of prediction markets in Europe is fairly new however a number of clients do see a clear benefit for usign the Predicat.Network for their organisation. We have decided for new clients to break out the components that are required to establish the cost and benefits for an implementation scenario. This helps our clients to establish their individual business case and invite the necessary sponsorship for a successful implementation.

If you are interested to know more please contact us on +49 (89) 2555 730-0 or send an email to kontakt@predicat.net.

[30.10.2009] Cause and effect in our networked society ripple across the globe

Thu, 1 Jan 1970 1:00:00 GMT

Business today is not determined by one company in one country or by one type of customer. Increasing specialisation and globalisation creates a fragile supply chain where the contribution of value to the product is efficiently distributed across numerous companies. In such a tight network the chain of cause and effects has become exponentially more complex and thereby very unusual risk scenarios. Why are we surprised to be discussing China’s demand for petrol and their effects on Brazilian crop farmers with the procurement officer of Coca-Cola or Wrigley’s? A Chinese producer’s decision to save one cent causing a serious quality concern with multimillion Euros consequences for Mercedes Benz?

We have to connect events from multiple avenues.

[01.03.2008] Engaging on a human level yields more than pure intellect and data

Thu, 1 Jan 1970 1:00:00 GMT

There is a great difference between what people should do and what they are going to do. Psychology and irrational behaviour play a much larger role than rational or classical economist care to admit. At the same time the conviction of single men can change the world in unexpected ways with improbable outcomes. Why do we pay more attention to money flow than how our people – customers, employees and providers – are invested in our success?

We need to make the human factor core of the concept.

Further Reading: Ariely, D. (2008). Predictably Irrational (Revised Edition). London: HarperCollinsPublishers.

[17.04.2007] Anticipating uncertainty is more important than managing risks

Thu, 1 Jan 1970 1:00:00 GMT

The Black Swan theory describes extreme events which emerge from beyond the perception of society to take huge effects on humanity. According to Taleb they occur with greater frequency than society wants to admit;since human kind will adopt an altered rationality that illustrates the causes of the event as pure logic – thereby making them less improbable in retrospective. A Black Swan event does not necessary signify a negative outcome, only one that was less expected by society and hence a surprise to the majority. Why is it then that businesses are tracking risk scenarios that are probable and calculable but not the ones that are improbable and live changing?

We have to expect the unexpected.

Further Reading: Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House.